Memories of the Bureau, 1946 to 1962
Foreword
Terminology
Prologue
Preface
Chapter 1: The Warren Years, 1946 to 1950
Chapter 2: International Meteorology
Chapter 3: The Timcke Years, 1950 to 1955
Chapter 4: A Year at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Melbourne to Cambridge, Massachusetts
Long-range Forecasting
Synoptic Meteorology
Dynamic Meteorology I, II, III
Dynamic Meteorology IV
Physical Meteorology
Seminars
Audrey Joins Me in Boston
Was it Worthwhile?
Chapter 5: The Dwyer Years, 1955 to 1962
Chapter 6: A Springboard for the Future
Appendix 1: References
Appendix 2: Reports, Papers, Manuscripts
Appendix 3: Milestones
Appendix 4: Acknowledgements
Appendix 5: Summary by H. N. Warren of the Operation of the Meteorological Section of Allied Air Headquarters, Brisbane, 1942–45
Endnotes
Index
Search
Help
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Long-range Forecasting (continued)
Hurd Willet's lectures (and those of Houghton) rekindled doubts I had already felt about the statements by some eminent scientists such as Taffy Bowen. I had previously formed the impression that Taffy's claims on rain-making and long-range forecasting were based on insufficient evidence. Lectures by Lettau, to which I will refer later, also led me to the conclusion that enthusiastic claims by some scientists were over-optimistic.Willet discussed the theories of Bjerknes, Rossby and Starr concerning the sources of energy and the mechanisms which drive and shape the general circulation of the atmosphere. An impressive feature of the work of Rossby and Starr was their conclusion that their theories should be tested by detailed studies of the general circulation using all available observational data. Accordingly they had established teams of synoptic analysts, Rossby in Chicago and Starr and Willet at MIT, to examine the northern hemisphere analyses of the Weather Bureau-Army-Navy analysis centre in Washington and southern hemisphere daily analyses produced at MIT, with which to test their theories. I was lucky that these analyses were available for the preparation of the thesis I prepared during my Fellowship at MIT, the summary of which appeared in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (Gibbs, 1953).
Lectures by Willet gave detailed descriptions of the circulation indices computed from these charts. They included indices based on the mean of the MSL pressure on latitudes 35, 55, 60 and 70 deg N from which were computed differences between the mean pressure at different latitudes to give an estimation of mean westerly and easterly zonal winds. My notes contain many pages of tables giving the results of these calculations and also their five-day means from which it was hoped to develop methods of five-day forecasting. Indices were also calculated from southern hemisphere analyses, and comparisons made.
Correlation coefficients were calculated for variations between differences in mean pressure for two different latitudes and were found to be disappointingly small. Lag correlations were also computed without revealing significant values except for a three-week period.
Comparisons were also made of correlations between hemispheres.
To test following about four weeks of lectures. Questions related to relative strengths of zonal flow at different latitudes in the northern hemisphere, comparison of strength of zonal westerlies in different hemispheres, transport of angular momentum, seasonal variation in circumpolar vortices and poleward heat transport.
People in Bright Sparcs - Bowen, Edward George (Taffy)
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