Wording and Verification of Forecasts (continued)

One by-product of having quantitative temperature forecasts expressed in degrees Fahrenheit (later in degrees Celsius) was that this innovation made forecast verification much easier. From time to time attempts had been made to assess forecast accuracy by comparing forecasts with the weather actually experienced during the forecast period. The usefulness of such verifications was doubtful because the wording of forecasts was often vague eg fine except for a shower or two, and the assessment of accuracy depended on the judgement of the assessor.

The precise prediction of maximum and minimum temperatures which made it possible to assess accuracy of forecasts objectively was not viewed with enthusiasm by all Deputy Directors. Comparisons of the performance of Divisional Offices caused some discussion because accuracy of predictions depended not only on forecasting skill but the difficulty of the task, which differed with location.

Verification of accuracy of prediction of other weather elements was difficult, especially in the case of rainfall because of the spatial and temporal variability of that element.

Bureau of Meteorology