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Antarctic Operational Meteorology



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Figure 17 Numerical MSL forecasts for the Southern Hemisphere for 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours based on the numerical MSL analysis for 1200 UTC on 28 Jan 1997 shown in Figure 8 (source National Meteorological Centre Melbourne).

  Numerical MSL forecasts

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Figure 18 Time variation in global forecast skill as measured by the S1 skill score (This score essentially provides a measure of the degree of error in the depiction of a forecast pressure field; the lower the score the better the forecast). The upper panel indicates the performance of the Australian operational forecast model against an independent analysis (METANAL); recent models produce their own analysis and can be compared against these (SELF).
The lower panel compares the Australian (GASP) model against those of the equivalent analysis centres, the National Meteorological Centre Washington (US), the British Meteorological Office, Bracknell (UK) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading UK (ECMWF) (source—Bureau of Meteorology National Meteorological Centre).

  Time variation in global forecast skill

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