The Weather Prophets
The Charleville Rainmaker
Reading the Signs
Weather to Order
The Long-range Outlook
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In April 1999, a hailstorm hit Sydney, its ferocity taking everyone by surprise. As the clean-up began, and the estimated repair bill climbed into the billions, the Weather Bureau was targeted for criticism. Why weren't the public warned? 'Yes, it is a strange fact', Wragge commented nearly a century earlier, 'that any single failure forms a rich subject for that cynical sarcasm and delicate irony on the part of the exceptional few who do not know the difference between an isobar and an isothermal line'.[65] As the accuracy of forecasts has improved, so public expectations have increased. Failures may be fewer, but criticism is perhaps more intense. Uncomfortable still with our vulnerability to the whims of nature, we look for humans to blame. ''Tis human nature', sayeth Wragge, 'and so 'twill be till the end'.[66]
Meteorology is not an 'exact science', nor, despite Wragge's earnest hopes, will it ever be. Responding to criticism over the Sydney hailstorm, the Bureau argued that complete accuracy was impossible 'because of the inherently chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic' conditions.[67] As the science of meteorology has developed, so has an understanding of its limits. The complexity of natural systems is such as to deny reduction to a simple set of laws. Seeking certainty, we have instead found chaos.
We have no timetable for the weather, but our nightly bulletins do offer forecasts for the coming few days. We cannot be certain when the next drought will hit, but an understanding of El Niņo enables us to monitor the likelihood of reduced rainfall. Improved modelling techniques, greater computing power, and increased knowledge of the interaction between ocean and atmosphere, all offer the hope of further improvement. But there will always be surprises.
Wragge would perhaps be disappointed in the progress of his science, and would no doubt claim to be able to do better himself. And yet, as we begin to grapple with the long-term implications of climate change, Wragge would at least have the satisfaction of seeing meteorology at the heart of debates about our global future. Who would have forecast that?
People in Bright Sparcs - Wragge, Clement Lindley
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