Flood Forecasting (continued)

The system which Neil and Brian developed depended heavily on a computer program written by Neil using the University of NSW computer. It involved the study of past rainfall and river occurrences in the valley.

It became apparent that three hourly observations of rainfall and river height would be required from a number of selected stations. When Neil told Bill Brann about the type of instruments required and the telecommunications system needed for transmission of observations, Bill cast serious doubts on whether they could be installed and maintained. At this time Bill had been disappointed by the performance of AWS in the Antarctic and his cautious nature made him reluctant to employ his limited staff on a project which might require much time in testing, installing and maintaining the stations, two of which were to be installed in rugged mountainous country. Len Dwyer called a meeting of hydrometeorological and instrument staff and after listening to Neil's proposal and Bill's doubts announced that the Bureau would buy the equipment which Neil required. The hydrometeorological staff were impatient with what they saw as inertia in acquiring, installing and maintaining the equipment and Bill was unhappy with having yet another project to supervise. Keith Henderson's appointment to the Communications Section must have eased the pressure on Bill.

Another component of the system which caused doubt was the requirement for the duty meteorologists in the Sydney Divisional Office to make forecasts of rainfall for three hourly intervals. However when they made trial forecasts using the three hourly observations of rainfall and the three hourly synoptic observations from the area they found they had skills they had not suspected.

Bureau of Meteorology