Cloud Seeding (continued)

Taffy, a man of considerable charm and a brilliant lecturer, was not a good listener. When he had convinced himself that he had made an important discovery in meteorology he discouraged discussion of evidence that cast doubt on his theories. His persuasive manner convinced Fred White to endorse his claims that some cloud seeding operations had increased rainfall by 30 percent. These claims did not survive careful evaluation. I imagine that Fred White would have later regretted his somewhat impulsive endorsement of Taffy's claims.

Taffy also ventured into the prediction of long-range forecasting of rainfall, using somewhat dubious intuitive assumptions regarding atmospheric processes. His claims of the value of his long-range rain predictions of the trend of departure from average monthly rainfall were no more convincing than those for the success of cloud seeding.

It was unfortunate that Taffy became convinced of his intuitive conclusions regarding rain-making and long-range rainfall forecasting leading him to premature announcements of the certainty of those conclusions. As pointed out by Ryan (1997), Taffy had used his wartime radar techniques in 1946 to initiate CSIR's research in the fields of radio astronomy, radio navigation and cloud and rain physics, the latter subject arising from the wartime discovery that rain clouds gave a radar echo. Taffy's CSIRO Division of Radiophysics made very significant contributions in these fields.

It is significant that when Jack Warner was Chief of the Division of Radiophysics he concluded that there was no evidence of substantial increases in rainfall from cloud seeding. CSIRO abandoned the exercise. Jack's conclusion was endorsed by the CSIRO Division of Statistics.

Bureau of Meteorology